Reasons of Arab not Awakening - Reflections on Marwan Bishara's Empire
The followings comments are
made on Empire of Marwan Bishara by his respected panelists on the issue of
resurgence of Arab authoritarianism or the failure of Arab awakening. The program
was hosted on 05 July. Here, I write saying that they seem to, however, missed
the elephant in the room.
I add few of other reasons which did not surface through the program but still wildly accept as the reasons of the Middle Eastern Issue.
What is the Middle East Issue?
At the heart of the modern issue is the individual grievance for better pays and better jobs. Then you have the social grievances for better education, running water, infrastructures and basic things like functioning sewage systems and so on - so it has to be obvious that when someone delivers these things in this region he has to be a leader like a Muhammad Gaddafi.
As Rami Khouri in the Empire points out the whole region is more or less have following issues in common on the top of basic grievances; sectarianism, autocracy, corruption, mismanagement, abuse of power, divisive politics, huge disparities in socio economic needs, violence and many none state actors...
Broadly speaking this whole region is wildly untouched by the modernity and enlightenment.
On the top of all above the region has been a hotbed for Islamist extremists - whether extremism is a reactionary force or pro-actionary force is another matter. As a result of that, extensive international and nation military campaigns have been ravaging this region for decades now. These issues are reimposing one another and have become a spiral that there is no end to be seen.
Those are not an exhausting list of issues which could help to define the Middle Eastern Issue.
1. Existing power structure is the problem - I added and later stress on this point
This point did not come up in the program of Marwan Bishara.
In my understanding this is the elephant in the room that everyone seems to miss easily - of cause, I am aware that the focus of this particular program was slightly away from bringing this point up that I am trying to stress in this article.
Nothing on this planet is being left untouched by the both 'good and evil' of this existing power structure. When I say existing power structure what I have in mind is the structures which came into being aftermath of the Post-Second-World-War and the United States as the ultimate military power in the world. These structures are embedded in the public international law as well. When the Art 1 of the UN Charter stipulates that 'International Peace and Security' of the world is the primacy of the Charter, it means business.
Whoever stresses all the other elements of this article as the root cause of Middle Eastern Issue gravely miss out the latter point. And therefore, the cures also, which are suggested as the solutions, ought to have that ill.
2. Tribalism, Islamism and Arabanism is the problem - Rami Khouri from American University of Beirut brought this point.
These three issues could be observed as separate issues. However, they are intertwined and are discussed here together.
Tribalism is the most primitive social organism in any society which sometimes barely goes beyond the family lineage. They could be the strongest lineage.
To bring another perspective to this primitive connotation of tribalism look elsewhere at the family lineages of well established western monarchies today; Ex, British and Danish monarchies.
The tribes of Middle East have very interesting history. History of some of these tribes may go back to Mosses' era, so-called the founding member of the Jewish state, about 1500 BC.
Name dropping is a significant business.
And there are strong indications that biblical scripts from Old Testament, New and Quran, reintroduce some of these tribes into this region. For ex, the stresses these scripts put on figures like Ishmael, Abraham's out-of-wedlock son, and Jacob, Isaac's son, and so on, have significant impact on how the family relations were built and how the power relations were found in this region.
They all indicate to me, in the midst of Persian and Roman Empires, there had been a strong desire among some individuals to create another alternative narrative in this region. It reflects through these writings. Just to say, that have to be the weak who seeks recognition in that region in that era.
Yet again not all tribes were favored in these writings - some may have been deliberately left out and some may have been insignificant for historical story telling.
Aftermath of the Prophet Muhammad, the rivalries between his family members, which nowadays recognize as Sunnis, and politically favored religious leaders, which nowadays recognize as Shias, historically speaking, yet again reintroduces another stream for this historical tribalism.
Tribes in this region, even today, trace their roots to this historical event.
Even the Mother Nature is hostile in this region. This large terrain is unforgiving. Tribes which are distanced by this fact of nature and by its sheer size had hardly developed large public spheres which could later be used to build up into cohesive political bodies with their own traditional, cultural and social significance.
Pockets of advance civilizations had to have remained in distance to these tribal businesses. Strong leaders had time to time organized cohesion to fight western crusaders.
The aftermath of the WW I - with the demise of the Ottoman Empire at the hand of Western powers, and the drawings of strait line boarders by the same Western powers – more or less the today's Middle East was emerged as we know it.
Trickling down cheap oil money to the masses made no need for innovations; and powerful western nations needed that.
The people, which were betrayed by the powerless leaders, whom were the puppets of powerful western states, had nowhere to go seeking for help other than to return to their tribes which they used to know for millennia.
This the root cause of modern tribalism which most observers happen to be overlooking when they observe the bigger picture.
3. Authoritarian is the problem - Khalil Al-Anani Johns Hopkins University brought this point
With the mindful of latter point made, Arab counties have been barely touched by the enlightenment and modernization. Of cause the reasons for that are partly lie in the realpolitik of West in last few hundred years, and then their need for oil from this region.
This is the hotbed for Arab authoritarianism.
However, whoever misses the latter point of what maintains the region as such again misses the broad picture. These kinds of observers identify individual authoritarianism as the problem of the country and the region.
4. Particular states such as Israel, Iran and Turkey is the problem - Rami Khouri from American University of Beirut brought this point.
Rami Khouri - he understands the issues spot-on and he delivers it perfectly - however, seems to regionalise and even tribalise the Middle Eastern Issue. I understand the gravity of his point and believe there is great deal of correctness in his belief.
However, the observation which ends with the borders of a particular state such as Israel or Iran again misses what hold those boarders solid. When it comes to Israel it is obvious, few western countries holding them. To say Shia Iran is the problem is also falling short of an accurate observation.
5. Rich counties need this region for their oil supply is the problem - I added
Discussed above.
6. Power balance is the problem - I added thinking of mainly the Russia's involvement in the region
This point has a great weight and linked to the first point I made in this article. The presence of Russia and China in the Security Council formalize this point of power balance in terms of legal terms too.
One greatly mistaken observation of current crisis in Syria and Egypt is the belief that power balance is inactive. The inaction is also a way of maintaining Peace and Security is misunderstood by many.
7. Particular individuals, such as Bashar al-Assad of Syria, Ali Khamenei of Iran, are the problem - I added
This point is one of the most marketed out point among western capitals in varies context. It is said that the problem is Osama bin-Laden, or Mohammed al-Zawahiri, or Saddam Hussein, or Asad in Syria or Abu Bakr al-Baghdad, the leader of Islamic State (ISIL). Quite rightly, getting rid of these individuals buys you more time. But it is not the solution.
When one analyses a situation keeping an individual as the anchor point, the analysis is most likely to be surrounded by the immediate issues concerned, and his evilness and wrongdoing. Whole historical context is lost for the sake of clarity and by the tedious observations of his actions and his relations to other actors and so on. This is a very common mistake made by observers.
Conclusion
Prioritizing these reasons in a way to reflect the reality is the most difficult part. But it is also the most important.
The way they are prioritized by the analyst places himself along the line of how he understands the issue.
For ex, one could thoroughly believe that the resources of oil in the Middle East, and West’s needs for them, is the root cause of the problem of Middle Eastern Issue. There could also develop convincing theories around to prove the latter. One could also argue the issue of the Middle East is the tribalism. This is also a convincing argument that one could theories the whole issue around it.
That kind of theorizing misses the realpolitik of existing power structure which maintains the Middle East as it is.
Yes, these structures are not static - especially the last decade or so it is been seen that the Post-WW II power structures are increasingly becoming shaky. But still there are largely intact, and it would be foolish to imagine it will change overnight when challenging actors, especially China - are tend to be playing the game along the old lines for their advantage.
Finally, to say the least, the right way to understand the resurgence of currant Middle Eastern Authoritarianism or the reason for ‘Arab not Awakening’ could be a cordial of all those reasoning mentioned above.
The prevailing world political order plays the greatest part of it all!
I add few of other reasons which did not surface through the program but still wildly accept as the reasons of the Middle Eastern Issue.
What is the Middle East Issue?
At the heart of the modern issue is the individual grievance for better pays and better jobs. Then you have the social grievances for better education, running water, infrastructures and basic things like functioning sewage systems and so on - so it has to be obvious that when someone delivers these things in this region he has to be a leader like a Muhammad Gaddafi.
As Rami Khouri in the Empire points out the whole region is more or less have following issues in common on the top of basic grievances; sectarianism, autocracy, corruption, mismanagement, abuse of power, divisive politics, huge disparities in socio economic needs, violence and many none state actors...
Broadly speaking this whole region is wildly untouched by the modernity and enlightenment.
On the top of all above the region has been a hotbed for Islamist extremists - whether extremism is a reactionary force or pro-actionary force is another matter. As a result of that, extensive international and nation military campaigns have been ravaging this region for decades now. These issues are reimposing one another and have become a spiral that there is no end to be seen.
Those are not an exhausting list of issues which could help to define the Middle Eastern Issue.
1. Existing power structure is the problem - I added and later stress on this point
This point did not come up in the program of Marwan Bishara.
In my understanding this is the elephant in the room that everyone seems to miss easily - of cause, I am aware that the focus of this particular program was slightly away from bringing this point up that I am trying to stress in this article.
Nothing on this planet is being left untouched by the both 'good and evil' of this existing power structure. When I say existing power structure what I have in mind is the structures which came into being aftermath of the Post-Second-World-War and the United States as the ultimate military power in the world. These structures are embedded in the public international law as well. When the Art 1 of the UN Charter stipulates that 'International Peace and Security' of the world is the primacy of the Charter, it means business.
Whoever stresses all the other elements of this article as the root cause of Middle Eastern Issue gravely miss out the latter point. And therefore, the cures also, which are suggested as the solutions, ought to have that ill.
2. Tribalism, Islamism and Arabanism is the problem - Rami Khouri from American University of Beirut brought this point.
These three issues could be observed as separate issues. However, they are intertwined and are discussed here together.
Tribalism is the most primitive social organism in any society which sometimes barely goes beyond the family lineage. They could be the strongest lineage.
To bring another perspective to this primitive connotation of tribalism look elsewhere at the family lineages of well established western monarchies today; Ex, British and Danish monarchies.
The tribes of Middle East have very interesting history. History of some of these tribes may go back to Mosses' era, so-called the founding member of the Jewish state, about 1500 BC.
Name dropping is a significant business.
And there are strong indications that biblical scripts from Old Testament, New and Quran, reintroduce some of these tribes into this region. For ex, the stresses these scripts put on figures like Ishmael, Abraham's out-of-wedlock son, and Jacob, Isaac's son, and so on, have significant impact on how the family relations were built and how the power relations were found in this region.
They all indicate to me, in the midst of Persian and Roman Empires, there had been a strong desire among some individuals to create another alternative narrative in this region. It reflects through these writings. Just to say, that have to be the weak who seeks recognition in that region in that era.
Yet again not all tribes were favored in these writings - some may have been deliberately left out and some may have been insignificant for historical story telling.
Aftermath of the Prophet Muhammad, the rivalries between his family members, which nowadays recognize as Sunnis, and politically favored religious leaders, which nowadays recognize as Shias, historically speaking, yet again reintroduces another stream for this historical tribalism.
Tribes in this region, even today, trace their roots to this historical event.
Even the Mother Nature is hostile in this region. This large terrain is unforgiving. Tribes which are distanced by this fact of nature and by its sheer size had hardly developed large public spheres which could later be used to build up into cohesive political bodies with their own traditional, cultural and social significance.
Pockets of advance civilizations had to have remained in distance to these tribal businesses. Strong leaders had time to time organized cohesion to fight western crusaders.
The aftermath of the WW I - with the demise of the Ottoman Empire at the hand of Western powers, and the drawings of strait line boarders by the same Western powers – more or less the today's Middle East was emerged as we know it.
Trickling down cheap oil money to the masses made no need for innovations; and powerful western nations needed that.
The people, which were betrayed by the powerless leaders, whom were the puppets of powerful western states, had nowhere to go seeking for help other than to return to their tribes which they used to know for millennia.
This the root cause of modern tribalism which most observers happen to be overlooking when they observe the bigger picture.
3. Authoritarian is the problem - Khalil Al-Anani Johns Hopkins University brought this point
With the mindful of latter point made, Arab counties have been barely touched by the enlightenment and modernization. Of cause the reasons for that are partly lie in the realpolitik of West in last few hundred years, and then their need for oil from this region.
This is the hotbed for Arab authoritarianism.
However, whoever misses the latter point of what maintains the region as such again misses the broad picture. These kinds of observers identify individual authoritarianism as the problem of the country and the region.
4. Particular states such as Israel, Iran and Turkey is the problem - Rami Khouri from American University of Beirut brought this point.
Rami Khouri - he understands the issues spot-on and he delivers it perfectly - however, seems to regionalise and even tribalise the Middle Eastern Issue. I understand the gravity of his point and believe there is great deal of correctness in his belief.
However, the observation which ends with the borders of a particular state such as Israel or Iran again misses what hold those boarders solid. When it comes to Israel it is obvious, few western countries holding them. To say Shia Iran is the problem is also falling short of an accurate observation.
5. Rich counties need this region for their oil supply is the problem - I added
Discussed above.
6. Power balance is the problem - I added thinking of mainly the Russia's involvement in the region
This point has a great weight and linked to the first point I made in this article. The presence of Russia and China in the Security Council formalize this point of power balance in terms of legal terms too.
One greatly mistaken observation of current crisis in Syria and Egypt is the belief that power balance is inactive. The inaction is also a way of maintaining Peace and Security is misunderstood by many.
7. Particular individuals, such as Bashar al-Assad of Syria, Ali Khamenei of Iran, are the problem - I added
This point is one of the most marketed out point among western capitals in varies context. It is said that the problem is Osama bin-Laden, or Mohammed al-Zawahiri, or Saddam Hussein, or Asad in Syria or Abu Bakr al-Baghdad, the leader of Islamic State (ISIL). Quite rightly, getting rid of these individuals buys you more time. But it is not the solution.
When one analyses a situation keeping an individual as the anchor point, the analysis is most likely to be surrounded by the immediate issues concerned, and his evilness and wrongdoing. Whole historical context is lost for the sake of clarity and by the tedious observations of his actions and his relations to other actors and so on. This is a very common mistake made by observers.
Conclusion
Prioritizing these reasons in a way to reflect the reality is the most difficult part. But it is also the most important.
The way they are prioritized by the analyst places himself along the line of how he understands the issue.
For ex, one could thoroughly believe that the resources of oil in the Middle East, and West’s needs for them, is the root cause of the problem of Middle Eastern Issue. There could also develop convincing theories around to prove the latter. One could also argue the issue of the Middle East is the tribalism. This is also a convincing argument that one could theories the whole issue around it.
That kind of theorizing misses the realpolitik of existing power structure which maintains the Middle East as it is.
Yes, these structures are not static - especially the last decade or so it is been seen that the Post-WW II power structures are increasingly becoming shaky. But still there are largely intact, and it would be foolish to imagine it will change overnight when challenging actors, especially China - are tend to be playing the game along the old lines for their advantage.
Finally, to say the least, the right way to understand the resurgence of currant Middle Eastern Authoritarianism or the reason for ‘Arab not Awakening’ could be a cordial of all those reasoning mentioned above.
The prevailing world political order plays the greatest part of it all!
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